The UK Vaping Industry Association (UKVIA) has warned that the government’s incoming Vaping Products Duty could trigger a severe public health setback by driving consumers toward the black market and traditional cigarettes when it takes effect on October 1.
Heavy Price Hikes and Black Market Warnings
The new tax adds £2.20 per 10ml of e-liquid, which increases to £2.64 after VAT. This structure will raise the price of lower-cost vaping products by as much as 264%. A UKVIA survey of nearly 3,500 adult vapers revealed that approximately half would return to smoking or purchase illicit products under the new pricing. Over 90% of respondents expect the black market to expand.
UKVIA director general John Dunne criticized the policy design:
“There is absolutely no debate that we need to prevent young people from accessing vaping products, and it’s not that the industry is flatly opposed to a duty increase, but the incoming rate is nothing short of a public health timebomb.”
Economic Modeling Challenges HMRC Assumptions
The UKVIA survey found that vapers consume an average of 24ml of e-liquid weekly, contrasting with the 11.9ml figure HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) used in its baseline calculations. Research conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) for retailer Vape Club highlights the projected outcomes of different tax rates:
| Proposed Duty (per 10ml) | Projected Return to Smoking | Healthcare & Productivity Impact |
|---|---|---|
| £2.20 (Current Plan) | 946,000 adults | £306.6m cost increase |
| £1.10 (Proposed Alternative) | 560,000 adults | £38.8m cost increase |
| £0.80 (Proposed Alternative) | 430,000 adults | £45.5m economic gain |
Matthew Ma, director of Stag Bar, stated that a serious miscalculation in consumer liquid consumption has produced a policy that endangers public health. The UKVIA is now requesting emergency talks with HM Treasury, HMRC, and health officials to lower the duty rate before October 1.
