Dutch health experts and advocacy groups have sounded the alarm, declaring the government’s ambitious “smoke-free generation” initiative a failure. This warning comes after recent national data revealed a troubling resurgence in smoking and vaping among Dutch youth, prompting urgent demands for the cabinet to drastically tighten anti-tobacco policies.
In late 2018, the Dutch government partnered with 70 organizations to launch the National Prevention Agreement (Nationaal Preventieakkoord). The core objective was to eliminate smoking among youth under 18 and reduce adult smoking to just 5% by 2040. However, four years into the plan, progress has stalled, with over 20% of the adult population still smoking regularly.
The situation is particularly critical among adolescents and young adults. The percentage of youth aged 16 to 20 who have never touched tobacco fell from 82% in 2020 to 78.9% just a year later. Even more concerning, nearly 30% of young adults aged 20 to 24 are now active smokers.
Pulmonologist and anti-smoking activist Wanda de Kanter points to the viral popularity of e-cigarettes – commonly referred to as vapes or dampers – on social media platforms like TikTok. “On school playgrounds, everyone is vaping,” De Kanter warned, noting that nicotine-addicted children are twice as likely to transition to traditional cigarettes.
Developmental psychologist Eveline Crone added that social peer pressure makes smoking a powerful social currency among teenagers, explaining that “not smoking means immediate social death for many young people.” Therefore, standard health warning campaigns often fail to resonate with this demographic.
Advocates argue that the tobacco industry successfully diluted the 2018 agreement. Lobbying efforts by employer organization VNO-NCW and political parties successfully removed structural, annual price increases from the final policy agreements. Consequently, the last significant excise tax increase occurred in April 2020, while critical measures like the e-cigarette flavor ban were repeatedly delayed.
| Policy Area | 2018 Agreement Target / Current Status | Expert Demands & Proposed Changes |
|---|---|---|
| Youth Smoking Rate | Target: 0% by 2040 (Currently rising among 16–20 age group) | Introduce a generation-based ban outlawing sales to anyone born after a certain year. |
| Cigarette Pricing | Stagnated at around €8 per pack; last major hike was in April 2020 | Implement a mandatory, compounding 10% annual price increase; some propose packs reaching €30–€47 by 2040. |
| Sales Outlets | Supermarket ban by 2024; online sales ban | Establish a strict licensing system to ban tobacco shops near schools and low-income neighborhoods. |
| E-Cigarette Regulation | Vapes included under general public smoking bans | Enforce an immediate, total ban on sweet e-cigarette flavors and eliminate influencer marketing. |
To salvage the 2040 goals, health organizations including the Heart Foundation (Hartstichting), KWF Cancer Society, and the Lung Foundation (Longfonds) are calling for immediate legislative action. They emphasize that visible, compounding price increases are the single most effective tool to encourage smokers to quit and prevent youth initiation.
State Secretary for Health Maarten van Ooijen previously floated a radical proposal to increase the price of a single pack of cigarettes to between €30 and €47 by 2040. While the cabinet deliberates on these long-term figures, health experts insist that immediate, short-term tax hikes and a complete ban on tobacco industry lobbying are required to curb a growing public health crisis that claims 20,000 Dutch lives annually.
